The Production Gap: The discrepancy between countries’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C

The report states that the planned fossil fuel production by various countries will cause emissions of 39 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030, globally. This is 53 per cent more than what would be consistent with the goal of limiting global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels in the coming decades. It is 120 per cent more than what would be consistent with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in this period.

The report notes that the global fossil fuel production gap is larger than the global ‘emissions gap’, as countries have paid minimal attention to curbing fossil fuel production. ‘Emissions gap’ refers to the difference between the greenhouse gas emission levels “…consistent with a specific probability of limiting the mean global temperature rise to below 2°C or 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2100, and the emission levels consistent with the effect of the nationally determined contributions.”

International cooperation is critical to reducing global fossil fuel production, observes the report. Countries can take steps towards this by reporting their levels of fossil fuel production and communicating their plans to align future production with climate goals with one another.

The report notes that many countries view energy production as part of their national identity and as an engine for economic development. Governments support industries producing fossil fuel through direct budget transfers, tax expenditures and other subsidies. These measures risk undermining the stated ‘climate ambitions’ of individual countries, as well as the globally agreed climate objectives.

The report states that Australia, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Norway, Russia, and USA accounted for around 60 per cent of the total global fossil fuel production in 2017.

India is the fourth largest coal producer, and the second largest coal importer in the world – reflecting the significant level of coal consumption in the country. India’s coal production has more than doubled since 2000 – it produced 724 million tonnes of coal in 2017. The state-owned Coal India Limited is the world’s largest coal mining company.

The report notes that China is the world’s largest coal producer, accounting for 43 per cent of global production in 2017. Coal production more than doubled in the country from 2000 to 2013. China is the sixth largest producer of natural gas in the world.

The USA produces more oil and gas than any other country in the world, surpassing Saudi Arabia for oil in 2015 and Russia for gas in 2012. It is the second largest producer of coal in the world.

Policies that constrain fossil fuel production, recommends the report, should be coupled with ‘transition support’ to aid those who rely on fossil fuel production for their livelihoods. Specifically, the two groups that must be the focus of transition planning efforts are workers and ‘fossil-fuel-dependent’ communities and regions.

Beyond governments, a range of non-State entities help facilitate the transition away from fossil fuel extraction – this includes companies, investors, trade unions, and civil society organisations. These groups often place social, political, and economic pressure on governments and companies to move away from supporting fossil fuel production.

Focus and Factoids by Advaita Manikkath.