World Population Prospects 2024

The report states that the global fertility rate is now 2.25 live births per woman, where it was 3.1 in 1990. The replacement level of fertility is the level required to maintain a roughly constant population size, and more than half of the world’s countries have fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman. Coupled with this, by 2080, people over the age of 60 will outnumber youth globally. Even countries with more youthful populations will see what is called a negative population momentum. This negative momentum will drive the decline of population in the next 30 years in 18 countries which have already peaked.

Countries which are likely to reach a peak between 2024 and 2054 will see a population increase by 5.3 per cent in the next 30 years. There is a 95 per cent chance of the peak in these countries occurring between 2038 and 2059 (ibid), following which the population will start to decline, at varying rates, depending on the country. In the 48 countries that are projected to see such a population increase through mid-century, the growth of women in the reproductive age, and younger age structures contribute to this ascent.

Countries which will see a population increase through 2054 to the next century exhibit a difference in stages of population growth. Around three quarters of these countries are in the intermediate stage with fertility rates above the replacement level, while the remaining one quarter is in the later stage with fertility below the replacement level. As the population of this group grows at the same time that the rest of the global population declines, this group of countries will contribute 82 per cent of the global population by 2100.

The countries in the first group include those of Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand), and Europe and North America. China, followed by Japan and the Russian Federation, will experience the largest population loss. The countries that will plateau, or remain in close range of their population size until 2054 include Germany, Portugal, and Uruguay among others.

The countries in the second group include Brazil, The Islamic Republic of Iran, and Vietnam. These countries are mostly situated in Latin America and the Caribbean, as compared to the previous group, which was concentrated in Europe.

The 126 countries of the third group include India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and the USA. The population of these countries will increase by 38 per cent by 2054. Following this, the growth rate will decelerate, with a 19 per cent increase through the end of the century.

The report also prescribes policies and measures for the stabilization of population growth, including healthcare, gender equality, advancements in education and technology.

Focus and Factoids by Mudra Banerjee.

PARI Library's health archive project is part of an initiative supported by the Azim Premji University to develop a free-access repository of health-related reports relevant to rural India.