State of World Population 2025

The world population is projected to peak and start declining in this century, the changes causing widespread demographic and social changes. However, these changes need to be viewed together within the historical context of another change – the so called ‘fertility boom’ of the 20th century. The widespread anxiety-led policy changes that led to many human rights violations the last time around must be avoided this time, the report states.

Original research conducted for this report by UNFPA and YouGov shows that very high proportions of people across all countries surveyed are unable to realise their fertility aspirations. There are high instances of both ‘underachieved’ and ‘overachieved’ fertility, that is, fewer or more children than desired.

Among 14,000 adults surveyed in 14 countries representing 37 per cent of the global population, the most common number of children desired was two. Almost 18 per cent of reproductive-age adults believed they would be unable to have the number of children desired – 11 per cent believed they would have fewer and seven per cent thought they would have more.

Around 32 per cent of the survey respondents said that either they or their partner has experienced an unintended pregnancy. Another 23 per cent had experienced a time when they desired a child but were unable to fulfil the desire at the time they wanted. Of these 23 per cent, more than 40 per cent had to ultimately give up on their wish to have a child.

Almost 13 per cent of respondents said they had experienced both: an unintended pregnancy and barriers to having children when desired. Additionally, people with ‘underachieved’ and ‘overachieved’ fertility were present in countries with both high and low fertility rates. This shows that barriers to having one’s ideal number of children are extremely common.

Indian respondents noted financial limitations (38 per cent), housing limitations (22 per cent) and unemployment or job insecurity (21 per cent) as leading factors that “have led or are likely to lead them to have fewer children than initially desired."

The report notes that media, academia and policymakers have often held women to be primarily responsible for birth rates. This fails to address the role of men in conception, reproduction, and the societal conditions necessary for people to realise their reproductive decisions.

The efficacy of coercion aimed at both increasing and decreasing fertility rates is questionable and such coercion can have unintended consequences. In regions where contraceptives and abortions are prohibited or inaccessible, people often seek unsafe abortions leading to high number of medical complications and even maternal death. As per 2024 data from the World Health Organization, an estimated 45 per cent of all abortions globally are unsafe abortions.

In recent years, public trust in governments and lawmakers has been eroded in various countries including Iran, USA and South Korea as lawmakers have rolled back or publicly suggested rolling back hard-won gender equality rights to increase fertility rates.

The report mentions that states should opt for policies which explicitly affirm the rights of individuals to make their own reproductive choices instead of policies that seek to influence fertility rates. Unfortunately, global trends are moving in the opposite direction.

The ultimate goal of family and population policies also deserves questioning. Governments often deny fertility services to same-sex couples, single individuals or other specific communities while also saying they intend to boost fertility rates.

Focus and Factoids by Swadesha Sharma.

PARI Library's health archive project is part of an initiative supported by the Azim Premji University to develop a free-access repository of health-related reports relevant to rural India.