Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window

The report notes that despite commitments made at COP 26, progress in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been minimal, necessitating urgent action to address the global climate crisis.

While the net GHG emissions dropped during the covid-19 pandemic in 2020, in 2021 the emissions are set to match or exceed 2019 levels, the report says. However, there has been an overall decline in the annual growth of GHG emissions – from 2.6 per cent per year (between 2000-09) to 1.1 per cent per year between 2010-19.

Collectively, the G20 countries are responsible for 75 per cent of the global GHG emissions. It is noteworthy that emissions are highly uneven across countries, regions, and households. China recorded the highest GHG emissions in 2020 and was followed by the United States of America, India, the European Union, Indonesia, Russian Federation and Brazil.

Per capita GHG emissions showed a different order. The worldwide average of per capita GHG emissions (including land use, land use change and forestry) was 6.3 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2020. The United States had the highest per capita emissions at 14 tCO2e, followed by the Russian Federation (13 tCO2e), China (9.7 tCO2e), Brazil and Indonesia (7.5 tCO2e each) and the European Union (7.2 tCO2e). In India, this number was below the average at 2.4 tCO2e.

The food system contributes to a third (around 18 gigatons CO2 equivalent) of overall GHG emissions each year. The largest contributor is agricultural production (7.1 GtCO2e) which includes production of inputs such as fertilizers and makes up 39 per cent of food system emissions. It is followed by changes in land use (5.7 GtCO2e or 32 per cent), and supply chain activities (5.2GtCO2e or 29 per cent). The report notes that transforming food systems will not just address climate change but also ensure food security for the global population.

The report defines the emissions gap for 2030 as the difference between the overall estimated GHG emissions after complete implementation of the NDCs and the emissions limits outlined to keep global warming under 1.5 to 2°C. Current policies are insufficient to meet even the unconditional NDCs.

If they are fully implemented, current unconditional and conditional NDCs by countries for 2030 are expected to reduce global emissions by five and 10 per cent respectively, compared to policies already in place. But to limit global warming below 2°C and 1.5°C by 2100, global GHG emissions need to be reduced by 30 and 45 per cent respectively.

The report highlights actions to aid in the transformation of the electricity, industry, transportation and building sectors towards reducing GHG emissions. It states that decisions taken today can lock the world in a path of high-carbon future. Therefore, it is necessary to plan for long-term transitions by promoting zero carbon technologies and planning for effective and just transitions.

The report also proposes certain approaches to build a financial environment that can support mitigation measures. It advocates for the introduction of carbon pricing. This can be done through policy instruments such as carbon taxes. It also notes that climate finance markets are prone to risk aversion and herd behaviour which results in inefficient choices. Strong public policy interventions can ‘nudge’ these choices for better results.

Focus and Factoids by Ananya Acharya.