Meanwhile, Maharashtra’s 3,146 figure reflects a decline of 640 farm suicides as compared to the 2012. In fact all the Big 5 states in farm suicides have recorded declines in 2013 relative to the previous year. Andhra Pradesh claims a fall of 558, Chhattisgarh 4, Madhya Pradesh 82 and Karnataka 472.
So are fewer Indian farmers killing themselves today? The latest ADSI report of the NCRB would appear to suggest so. The nation-wide figure has fallen to 11,744 farm suicides, down 1,982 from 13,754 in 2012. ( http://ncrb.gov.in/adsi2013/table-2.11.pdf ).
A very welcome decline - until you look at the numbers more closely. With a total of 7,653, the Big 5 still account for a full two-thirds of all farmers’ suicides in the country. No changes in the pattern there. And 15 other states recorded mostly mild increases. Of those, only Haryana records a significant increase of 98.
This great ‘fall’ also perpetuates a growing trend of states with otherwise high farm suicide numbers declaring ‘zero’ or near zero suicides year after year. Chhattisgarh has done this three years in a row now since 2011: it has announced 0, 4 and 0 farmer suicides. West Bengal also records zero in both 2012 and 2013. What if we take a three-year average for these states before they started their zero-sum games? For Chhattisgarh that average was 1,567. For West Bengal 951. That’s a total of 2,518. Add that to the 2013 total and it goes up 14,262. That’s even higher than the 2012 figure (when too, the same fudging was on).
Even accepting the 11,744 figure for 2013, that brings the national total since 1995 to 2,96,438 farmers’ suicides (NCRB ADSI reports 1995-2013) .
This is not to say that states cannot or have not seen any decline at all. (Also, one-off annual rises or falls are quite normal). Just that the nature of that decline as recorded in the past three years is highly suspect. So Chhattisgarh, a state that saw \over 14,000 farm- suicides from 2001-10, suddenly has none at all in the next three years. A model worth emulating? Other states surely think so. They’re getting in on the fraud, too.
Puducherry, for long the worst among union territories in farm suicides, has declared a zero figure in 2011,2012 and 2013. In 2010, it claimed a modest four. But in 2009, its figure was 154 farm suicides.
“Clearly, the massaging of the data continues”, says Prof. K. Nagaraj. an economist at the Asian College of Journalism, Chennai. Prof. Nagaraj’s 2008 study on farm suicides in India remains the most important one on the subject.. “When you want to play down very bad numbers in one column, you can’t just erase them. You have to fit them into some other, catch-all category. Shoving unwanted numbers into “Others” is the common route to data massaging.”
And that’s exactly the trend in the data the states have been submitting to the NCRB. This year, too.
Here’s another thing that gives away the heavy massaging the data have been subject to at the state level.
On the same page as the NCRB table which records the “Self-employed (farming / agriculture)” is another column: “Self-employed (Others).” ( http://ncrb.gov.in/adsi2013/table-2.11.pdf ).
As Chhattisgarh’s farm suicides numbers have dwindled to zero, its numbers of suicides in this “Self-employed (Others)” column has swollen. In the years when Chhattisgarh wasn’t blanking out farm suicides numbers (e.g. 2008 and 2009), its figures in this “Others” column were, 826 and 851. In the last two years, when it reports zero farm suicides, these numbers soar to 1826 and 2077. Maharashtra, which claims a decline of 640 in farm suicides, records a rise of over 1,000 suicides under “Self-employed (Others).”Madhya Pradesh records a decline of 82 in farm suicide numbers, but a rise of 236 in this “Others” category.
Puducherry shows a similar trend. West Bengal solved that problem by simply not filing any data at all in 2012. So clearly, even if you can’t shove the numbers under the carpet, you can dump some of them in “Others.”
Those prematurely celebrating a decline miss another point. There were 7.7 million fewer farmers in 2011 than there were in 2011, as the Census data show us. Millions were and are either quitting the profession or losing full farmer status. In that period, the country, on average, saw 2,000 fewer farmers each day. So there were surely even fewer farmers in 2013. What do get if we view the suicide numbers against this shrinking farmer base?
As Prof. Nagaraj and researchers at the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) calculated last year from NCRB and Census data across a decade: “the adjusted farmers’ suicide rate for 2011 is in fact slightly higher than it was in 2001.” ( http://psainath.org/farmers-suicide-rates-soar-above-the-rest/ ) And that’s after heavy data fudging at the State level.
As their calculations showed: Suicide rates among Indian farmers were a chilling 47 per cent higher than they were for the rest of the population in 2011. In some of the States worst hit by the agrarian crisis, they were well over 100 per cent higher. In Maharashtra, farmers were killing themselves at a rate that was 162 per cent higher than that for any other Indians excluding farmers. A a farmer in this State is two-and-a-half times more likely to commit suicide than anyone else in the country, other than farmers.
Are the suicides occurring because of drought and crop failure?
Farmers have been killing themselves in years when the crop has been excellent. And in seasons when it has failed. They have taken their own lives in large numbers in very different years. When it rains they lose out, when it doesn’t, they lose out worse. There have been awful suicide numbers in some good monsoon years. And so too, in years of drought, which can make things more terrible.
The suicides occurred overwhelmingly amongst cash crop farmers. Growers of cotton, sugar cane, groundnut, vanilla, coffee, pepper and others. Far fewer suicides occur amongst growers of paddy or wheat. Can we argue that drought kills cash crop farmers but not those cultivating food crops?
The monsoon does have a very real impact on agriculture. But it is by no means the main reason for the farm suicides. And with the bulk of those suicides occurring amongst cash crop farmers, the issues of debt, hyper-commercialization, exploding input costs, water-use patterns, and severe price shocks and price volatility, come much more to the fore. All factors majorly driven by state policies.
Against the background of these factors, you can be sure that if a drought really unfolds this year, they’re in very big trouble. And we will know very shortly. July is the main month of the monsoon. It normally accounts for over 50 per cent of the rains, thus equalling the importance of the other three months of June, August and September combined. Given the situation that seems to be building, I’d go slow on the celebrations.
Also see:
Farmers’ suicides rates soar above the rest: http://psainath.org/farmers-suicide-rates-soar-above-the-rest/
Farm Suicide trends in 2012 remain dismal. http://psainath.org/farm-suicide-trends-in-2012-remain-dismal/
Over 2,000 fewer farmers every day: http://psainath.org/over-2000-fewer-farmers-every-day/
Farmers’ suicides in the state of Maharashtra 1995-2013
Year Maharashtra farm suicides
1995 1083
1996 1981
1997 1917
1998 2409
1999 2423
2000 3022
2001 3536
2002 3695
2003 3836
Total 1995-2003 23,902
2004 4147
2005 3926
2006 4453
2007 4238
2008 3802
2009 2872
2010 3141
2011 3337
2012 3786
2013 3146
Total 2004-2013 36,848
Total 1995-2013 60,750
This story originally appeared in: http://psainath.org/maharashtra-crosses-60000-farm-suicides/#prettyPhoto
A shorter version of this post appeared on the BBC here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-28205741
